“Last Chance” Conference

Like a silent Tsunami, news headlines are rippling out from the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali across the world. They warn of catastrophic climate changes ahead, unless representatives from nearly 200 countries take urgent action on behalf of the planet. The fate of the earth, some headlines worry, lies in their hands. It’s being called the “Last Chance” conference.

In support of this rising urgency, three separate UN organizations have issued the strongest condemnation yet of Western climate policies, thus setting the stage for a rich vs poor country clash. Rich countries, they report, are driving global warming emissions to record levels. And poor countries will bear the biggest consequences.  The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – winner of this year’s Nobel Prize —- has confirmed beyond a doubt that global warming is real and has outlined the consequences of continued inaction.

One big problem facing delegates here in Bali is that China, India and Brazil still consider themselves developing countries. In fact, they are. They are also “factory nations” absorbing jobs out-sourced from rich nations, and spewing vast amount of pollution into waterways, land and air, as their factories crank out products to meet the ever expanding needs of rich nations.

Can rich nations have it all? Can the U.S., for example, continue to outsource its pollution without cutting back on consumption?  I’ve seen the charts that show that U.S. consumption rates are still more than double that of Europe, and five times or more that of developing countries.

Last Tuesday, a United Nations report recommended that developing countries cut their carbon emissions at least 20% by 2050. It also suggested that rich nations should cut theirs by 80 percent in the same time period. Both rich and poor countries, of course, could do better. To match the level of urgency reported here, both rich and poor countries should set goals of  80% reduction by 2020.

If we’re approaching the “tipping point” as the UN reports suggest, why not pick a goal to match the brilliance of the minds assembled here in Bali. With more than 10,000 participants, 140 Side Events, and world class thinking going on 24/7 we could do better. So, I recommend that we take advantage of this “Last Chance” moment to push the envelope of possibilities.

Could China, India and Brazil achieve high levels of energy efficiency … with funding and technical support from developed countries, and still grow their economies? Yes, says a new book, Clearing the Air, edited by Mun S. Ho and Chris P. Nielsen, and just published by the MIT Press. It recommends a Green Tax solution. The book details research and policy implications of the Harvard China Project of imposing a Green Tax on consumption. A consumer would pay more for products that have larger environmental impacts.

Another tax, on fossil fuels, was suggested a month ago, by New York City’s Mayor Michael Bloomberg. He courageously called for such a tax at a US Mayors Energy Summit in Seattle, WA. And the International Maritime Organization (IMERS), based in London, UK, and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies have jointly called for importers to pay $1 extra for $1,000 of shipped goods, to help mitigate international transport fuel emissions from marine and air travel. The money would also help fund adaptation strategies.

Solutions abound. Could the U.S. muster the political will, and will power, to cut levels of consumption to match leading edge countries, like Norway or Germany? Could we learn to unplug electronics when not in use, drive fuel efficient cars, live closer to work, eat less meat (I’ll talk about the land use and water consumption issues related to the rising demand for meat products in a future blog) and go to bed when its dark outside without a dramatic loss of lifestyle?

Could governments agree to pull the plug on wars around the world that waste vast quantities of fossil fuels, devastate the environment, and turn city dwellers into refugees?

Yesterday, I bought a beautiful silk scarf in an artisan’s shop. The store was filled with brightly colored, hand-crafted items. As I made my purchase I couldn’t help imagine how beautiful the world might be if we all, each one of us, turned from mass produced widgets and gadgets, to hand-crafted goods. If we coveted less, and lived more? Could we all reach the 4-hour-work week, touted in a new best seller, if we removed the rich-poor labels of our thinking, and focused our minds more on artful living?

Again, the UN is leading the way here…. They announced to participants that in a simple gesture to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the conference, they would be turning down the air conditioning. It will be OK, they advised, to shed suit jackets and ties at most meetings. This is something I can live with, especially coming from Boulder, where sports attire is the norm.

Tomorrow, I’ll talk about the perfect storm brewing for Australia, and its new Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd. The UN has warned him that his decision to ratify the Kyoto Protocol is more than symbolic. Australia faces penalties if it fails to meet its targets. It’s a perfect storm, I think, because I think it contains all the elements of world changing. I believe that the voters in Australia who brought Rudd his stunning victory over PM John Howard, will do everything they can to support him in his leadership here.