Bali: A New Road Map
The recent election in Australia may provide a road map for what could happen over the next 10 days in Bali. Kevin Rudd has now been sworn in as Prime Minister, and overnight this has created a seismic shift in power. It seems that the country will now be dominated by a single party, the Labor Party.
Political watchdogs say that it was a victory of the working class and poor over vested interest. Here in Bali, the working poor around the globe represent a newly emerging political force. Their fate is being linked to that of the Earth. Worldwide, perhaps a billion lives of the poor are at risk, and 2-3 billion of them may become refugees as agriculture and water supplies collapse in places like southern Asia and elsewhere.
If U.S. delegates and the emerging countries of China and India do little more than discuss the current road map; if they wait for “regime change” in America … they may hand the “win” at the UN conference to vested interests, and business as usual. To reach this win, delegates simply need to agree to engage in long, legal discussions with no fast track working groups, and no clear mandate for rapid action.
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Much is at stake here. How the U.S. and China – two leading contenders for the top spot in global warming emissions - respond to the threat of a collapsing environment will shape political outcomes for the rest of this century. Inaction equals failure; the outcome is certain. As Steve Biddulph writes in the Sydney Morning Herald, “Energy, weather and human misery are the factors that will define our lives for decades to come.”
So the election of PM Rudd is also important for the long shadow it may cast over the negotiations here in Bali. One goal is to reach consensus on a timeframe for action. Should they attempt to fix the flaws in the Kyoto Protocol, or seek consensus on new, scientifically solid new ground?
The list of actors engaged in the negotiation process in Bali includes several thousands government delegates. These delegates, of course, get extensive input from other sources, both through official channels and behind the scenes conversations. These unofficial sources of influence include both non-governmental organizations such as the World Wildlife Federation, Conservation International, Intergovernmental agencies, and also interests representing coal, oil and nuclear energy.
The latter group has great, unseen power here. However, like other industries before them: the semiconductor and computer industry, and even MA Bell … the “original” phone company in the US, these centralized power sources risk losing everything to decentralization. Renewable energy, efficient use of energy, and energy conservation, create very local solutions.
So there are some parties at this conference who have a vested interest in keeping the discussions going as long as possible. If serious climate protection actions actually survive the negotiating process here, these so-20th Century industries and livelihoods could disappear overnight.
The good news is that change is inevitable. It’s evolutionary. With the hammer of both the environment and the threatened meltdown of the United States dollar (along with linked economies worldwide) policy changes could work their way through UN negotiations sooner than anyone could have predict.