China Tops the U.S.

In a nutshell, here’s the crux of the problem in Bali. China and India – who never had to abide by the Kyoto Protocol because they were considered “developing countries” at the time of the negotiations - are now feeling the impacts of climate change and want to do what is necessary to reduce their emissions. A new 2008 Climate Change Performance Index prepared by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe shows Sweden and Germany in the #1 and #2 spots, with India close behind, at #5. China is ranked at #40 and the U.S.is listed second from the bottom at #55. Only Saudia Arabia ranks lower than the U.S. of 56 countries being studied.

America is not leading or following here. It is back at the end of the line and out of step with everyone else.

It’s not just Bush who is marching with two left feet. Consider the role of the U.S. Senate. While the first act of Australia’s Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister was to ratify the Kyoto Protocol,  things work differently in the U.S.

In the U.S., we have separation of powers. To ratify the Kyoto Protocol, Bush would first need the agreement of 2/3rds of the U.S. Senate to proceed with ratification. Back in the 1990’s President Clinton’s hands were tied by a Republican majority. A two-thirds majority was not possible.

Today, the problem is different. There is a lack of national leadership. Bush/Cheney have no interest in ratification. And, even if Bush did, he would still need agreement by 2/3rds of the Senate. So stop and do the math. How many Senators, right now, would support U.S. ratification of the Kyoto Protocol? Do we have enough Senators to force the president’s hand?

At the present time, it would take an impassioned, “born again” environmental president to motivate Republican senators to join the Democrats in approving ratification. The chances of this happening during the Bush presidency is near zero. It would fall into the realm of miracles.

Unless a miracle happens, the U.S. will not be signing any ratification document until 2009 or 2010 … after the new president is sworn into office, AND after 2/3rds of the Senate formally agree to support the president on Kyoto. So don’t hold your breath.

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In Bali, there are two groups forming behind the scenes. One group believes that the Kyoto Protocol will continue as is, until 2012, and then new agreements will come into effect to extend it with new, tighter standards. The second group believes that a totally new mandate is needed – with a new name - that will right all the wrongs of Kyoto, close all loopholes, and bind the U.S., China and India together in strict compliance.

So, unless the U.S. shifts into high gear, there will be no strong mandate emerging from Bali. Yes, deforestation is being put on the table. But no, most likely, there will simply be an agreement to continue the negotiations into 2009 and beyond, putting science into action while waiting for change to take place in the U.S.

By 2009, it is possible that China will have surpassed the U.S. as the world’s leading polluter. It is also possible that policies that China is now putting into effect could show good results. That same year, when a new U.S. president is sworn into office, will the world look to the U.S. for leadership? Or will all eyes have shifted to China?

Next week, there will be drama. There will be thunder. There will be applause. But will there be action? Next week, America’s environmental superstars are showing up. First, Senators Barbara Boxer and John Kerry, followed by former Vice President Al Gore and New York City’s Michael Bloomberg. They will address the delegates. California’s governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will arrive on Friday, just before the houselights dim and the TV camera crews pack up and go home.

It’s a perfect photo op. Hopefully, the final shot will show some hands held high in a victory salute.