The UN Scorecard
Keeping score is easy at the UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC). Just follow the money. Watch who has money to give away and what projects are funded. The exception to this rule is the U.S.
The U.S. is the single largest constraint to the UN process in Bali. The Bush Administration, it seems, is trying to make the UNFCCC irrelevant. Everyone knows this. Even when a CNN reporter tried to get the Foreign Affairs Minister of Brazil to finger the culprit, the Minister used UN conference code for the U.S. and everyone laughed at his answer because they understood it.
Back in America, almost 60 bills that directly address climate change issues – approximately 30 in the House and 30 in the Senate – have been addressed by the current U.S. Congress. The flagship bill, “America’s Climate Security Act,” is the bill to watch.
Sponsored by Senators Joe Lieberman and John Warner, it will define the U.S. position on climate change for the next five years. It will make or break political careers in November 2008.
According to the Union of Concerned Scientists and the World Wildlife Fund-US, the Lieberman-Warner bill allocates about $3 billion/year over the next 20 years to international forest protection. This amount is similar to the pledge of $2.7 billion by Norway – to stop deforestation - that was announced here yesterday. The U.S. delegates in Bai will not agree to this. They are the “empty suits” at the Bali conference.
If any commitments to UN climate protection actions are made, they will come from the Democrat-led Congress in the U.S. Here’s how it will happen.
Currently 48 Senators have agreed to support the Lieberman-Warner bill on climate security. The Bill needs 60 Senators to pass out of the Senate. It also needs a similar effort in the House. IF the House and Senate can both pass a climate security bill … AND IF they can both reconcile the different language between the two bills and create ONE unified bill … AND … IF they present it to President Bush for its signature next September 2008, it just might pass.
To come to life, the bill must ultimately include the signature of the U.S. president.
Bush will not sign the bill today, says Manik Roy, Director of Congressional Affairs at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. However, he just might sign it in September 2008 because his advisors will tell him that if he does not sign it – just before the November elections – then the Republicans will likely be tarred and feathered by the US public and tossed out of office.
If this scenario unfolds as described, then you can start breathing again. We will have passed a critical marker point. However, this doesn’t mean that you can now relax and look away. There are other Scary Creatures in the closet that are just about to make their entry onto the world stage.